Steepest Fall In Retail Sentiment In 17 Years

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Sentiment amongst retailers fell at the sharpest rate in 17 years, with a growing share of firms expecting their business situation to deteriorate over the coming quarter – according to the CBI’s latest quarterly Distributive Trades Survey.

Retail sales volumes fell at a fast pace in the year to November, extending a period of weakness that goes back to mid-2023. Retailers expect demand to remain subdued heading into December, with sales set to fall again, albeit at a somewhat slower pace.

With demand still weak and uncertainty mounting ahead of the Budget, retailers plan to pull back on both investment and hiring. Investment intentions remain historically weak and have now been negative for three-and-a-half years. In the near-term, firms also expect to trim headcount at a slightly faster pace next month.

Key findings included:

Retail sales volumes fell at a fast pace in the year to November (weighted balance of -32% from -27% in October) but are expected to decline at a somewhat slower rate next month (-24%).
By seasonal standards, November’s retail sales were judged to be “poor” (-25%), to a somewhat greater extent than in October (-15%). December’s sales are set to disappoint seasonal norms to a comparable degree (-18%).
Sentiment among retailers worsened in November to the greatest extent in 17 years, with firms expecting their business situation to deteriorate over the coming quarter (-35% from -10% in August).
Retailers expect to reduce capital expenditure over the next 12 months (compared to the previous 12 months) to the same degree as reported in August (-42%). Investment intentions remained poor by historical standards (long-run average of -3%).
Retail employment declined again in the year to November (-19% from -14% in August). Headcount is expected to fall at a marginally quicker pace next month (-23%)
Retail selling price inflation fell closer to its long-run average in the year to November (+46%), slowing from a much faster rate in August (+65%), and bucking the trend of accelerating price inflation seen this year so far. Retailers anticipate selling price growth to ease again next month (+40%).
Total distribution sales volumes (including retail, wholesale, and motor trades) fell significantly in the year to November at a slightly quicker rate to October (-35% from -30% in October). Sales are set to decline at the same pace next month (-35%).

Alpesh Paleja, Deputy Chief Economist, CBI, said:

“Retailers continue to grapple with a long spell of weak demand, as households remain cautious around day-to-day spending. With all eyes on the forthcoming Budget, uncertainty in the run-up has meant that businesses are holding back on plans for investment and hiring."

“The Chancellor must avoid pulling the business tax lever once again, at risk of further curtailing firms’ efforts to build a more resilient, dynamic economy. Businesses want bold decisions to wrestle back the government’s fiscal headroom and get the economy on a solid path to prosperity. This includes finding a landing zone for the Employment Rights Bill that doesn’t harm job prospects or shortchange economic growth.”

In addition, data from the survey showed:

Online retail sales volumes grew in the year to November at a moderate pace and for the second month in a row (+13% from +4% in October). Retailers expect online sales to surge in December (+50%), marking the strongest expectation since May 2021.
Retailers’ orders placed upon suppliers declined in the year to November at a similarly firm pace to October (-25%, from -28%). Retailers expect to reduce orders at a faster rate next month (-34%).
Retailers reported that stock volumes relative to expected demand were broadly in line with the long-run average (+18% from +14%; long-run average of +17%) and are expected to broadly stay in this position in December (+16%).
Wholesaling’s annual sales volumes fell in November at the same pace as October (-31%). The rate of decline is expected to remain steady next month (-34%).
Motor trades sales volumes contracted at an accelerated rate in the year to November (-55% from -29% in October) and are expected to plummet next month (-66%).

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lindaandrews071
Sep 24
2 min read

The Original Baker, an artisan producer of handcrafted sweet and savoury pastry products, has completed a major expansion project following substantial investment from the Olidor Group. The funding has doubled production capacity, enabled the launch of innovative new product lines, and created a wave of skilled and entry-level job opportunities, delivering fresh economic benefits to the local community.

The investment has included the construction of an additional 22,000 square feet of production capacity at The Original Baker’s North Malton site, plus investment into new equipment and enhanced logistics capabilities to support expansion into e-commerce providing products to smaller independent cafes, retailers and delis who want to offer exception sweet and savoury bakery products to their customers. Recruitment is underway, with roles ranging from bakery operatives and quality controllers to supervisory positions and specialist food technologists.

Mike Walker, Managing Director:

“This is a landmark moment for The Original Baker. The investment from the Olidor Group has enabled us to grow sustainably while staying true to our artisan roots. This expansion has strengthened our position as the leading producer of artisan premium pastry and created rewarding careers for talented people in our community.”

The Original Baker became part of the Olidor Group in 2023. Olidor Group is an investment business with a proven track record of nurturing ambitious brands in the food industry. It’s portfolio includes; Brusco Food Group, Karimix, Four Anjels, The Artful Baker, Porter Foods and The Original Baker.

Andrew Ashby, CEO at Olidor Group, commented:

“We invest in businesses with strong values, exceptional products, and clear growth potential. The Original Baker ticks every box. Together, we’re building on their artisan heritage while creating a strong future for the brand and the people behind it. The support and backing of a larger group have enabled The Original Baker to make long term investments that will cement their position as the UK’s leading producer of handcrafted sweet and savoury bakery products.”

The expansion is expected to create 30 new jobs over the next 12 months, boosting the local economy and supporting the food manufacturing sector in North Yorkshire. The Original Baker will continue to work closely with local suppliers and farmers, ensuring that the business growth also benefits the wider rural economy.

Founded in 2016, The Original Baker is known for its award-winning range of handmade pies, pasties, and sausage rolls, made using traditional techniques and the finest ingredients. The company’s “Bake It Right” ethos has earned it a loyal customer base and a growing reputation for exceptional quality.

About The Original Baker

The Original Baker is an artisan bakery based in North Malton, North Yorkshire, producing premium handmade pies, sausage rolls, and pastries for retail and hospitality clients across the UK. With a commitment to quality, craft, and community, The Original Baker continues to champion traditional baking methods while embracing innovation to meet growing demand.

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Steepest Fall In Retail Sentiment In 17 Years

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