Steepest Fall In Retail Sentiment In 17 Years

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Sentiment amongst retailers fell at the sharpest rate in 17 years, with a growing share of firms expecting their business situation to deteriorate over the coming quarter – according to the CBI’s latest quarterly Distributive Trades Survey.

Retail sales volumes fell at a fast pace in the year to November, extending a period of weakness that goes back to mid-2023. Retailers expect demand to remain subdued heading into December, with sales set to fall again, albeit at a somewhat slower pace.

With demand still weak and uncertainty mounting ahead of the Budget, retailers plan to pull back on both investment and hiring. Investment intentions remain historically weak and have now been negative for three-and-a-half years. In the near-term, firms also expect to trim headcount at a slightly faster pace next month.

Key findings included:

Retail sales volumes fell at a fast pace in the year to November (weighted balance of -32% from -27% in October) but are expected to decline at a somewhat slower rate next month (-24%).
By seasonal standards, November’s retail sales were judged to be “poor” (-25%), to a somewhat greater extent than in October (-15%). December’s sales are set to disappoint seasonal norms to a comparable degree (-18%).
Sentiment among retailers worsened in November to the greatest extent in 17 years, with firms expecting their business situation to deteriorate over the coming quarter (-35% from -10% in August).
Retailers expect to reduce capital expenditure over the next 12 months (compared to the previous 12 months) to the same degree as reported in August (-42%). Investment intentions remained poor by historical standards (long-run average of -3%).
Retail employment declined again in the year to November (-19% from -14% in August). Headcount is expected to fall at a marginally quicker pace next month (-23%)
Retail selling price inflation fell closer to its long-run average in the year to November (+46%), slowing from a much faster rate in August (+65%), and bucking the trend of accelerating price inflation seen this year so far. Retailers anticipate selling price growth to ease again next month (+40%).
Total distribution sales volumes (including retail, wholesale, and motor trades) fell significantly in the year to November at a slightly quicker rate to October (-35% from -30% in October). Sales are set to decline at the same pace next month (-35%).

Alpesh Paleja, Deputy Chief Economist, CBI, said:

“Retailers continue to grapple with a long spell of weak demand, as households remain cautious around day-to-day spending. With all eyes on the forthcoming Budget, uncertainty in the run-up has meant that businesses are holding back on plans for investment and hiring."

“The Chancellor must avoid pulling the business tax lever once again, at risk of further curtailing firms’ efforts to build a more resilient, dynamic economy. Businesses want bold decisions to wrestle back the government’s fiscal headroom and get the economy on a solid path to prosperity. This includes finding a landing zone for the Employment Rights Bill that doesn’t harm job prospects or shortchange economic growth.”

In addition, data from the survey showed:

Online retail sales volumes grew in the year to November at a moderate pace and for the second month in a row (+13% from +4% in October). Retailers expect online sales to surge in December (+50%), marking the strongest expectation since May 2021.
Retailers’ orders placed upon suppliers declined in the year to November at a similarly firm pace to October (-25%, from -28%). Retailers expect to reduce orders at a faster rate next month (-34%).
Retailers reported that stock volumes relative to expected demand were broadly in line with the long-run average (+18% from +14%; long-run average of +17%) and are expected to broadly stay in this position in December (+16%).
Wholesaling’s annual sales volumes fell in November at the same pace as October (-31%). The rate of decline is expected to remain steady next month (-34%).
Motor trades sales volumes contracted at an accelerated rate in the year to November (-55% from -29% in October) and are expected to plummet next month (-66%).

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Linda Andrews - Editorial Assistant, Nuse Online
Aug 6, 2024
2 min read

Jonathan Guest, the founder of Cheshire-based Safety Shield Global, has spoken of his ‘unforgettable honour’ in meeting His Majesty, King Charles III at a special reception for winners of this year’s prestigious King’s Awards.

The event at Windsor Castle in London was hosted by the King and attended by business leaders from around the country who had been recognised for their innovation and excellence.

Considered to be the highest commercial accolade possible for any UK business, the King’s Award was presented to Safety Shield Global for its ground-breaking work in developing an Artificial Intelligence safety system for plant machinery.

Jonathan Guest came up with the idea of improving construction site safety after one of his close friends was tragically killed in a collision with an excavator. He spent more than a decade honing and developing technology which had initially been utilised for collision avoidance in the automotive industry.

Speaking of his meeting with King Charles III, Jonathan comments:

“Meeting King Charles at Windsor Castle was an unforgettable honour. His remarkable ability to connect with people was testament to his commitment to fostering enterprise and innovation."

“Windsor Castle provided a majestic backdrop for the reception and shaking hands with King Charles and discussing how Safety Shield is leading the way in construction site safety and innovation and the reasons for winning the Kings Award was a surreal experience that I will cherish forever."

“I am deeply honoured and humbled that Safety Shield Global have been awarded with The King’s Award for Enterprise: Innovation. This award represents recognition of the resolution, vigour, and dedication of our team.”

The most advanced AI ‘human form recognition device’ available on the market, Safety Shield’s award-winning system was designed to cut the risk of serious injury on busy construction sites and places of work where heavy plant are operational.

Providing a world-class level of protection for contractors in the most demanding of safety-focussed environments, Safety Shield gives operators a full 360-degree ‘window’ to ensure workforce safety.

Using AI to identify people who are in the danger zone, the system is trained to filter out all other objects and only detects the human form, acting as a third eye for the operator and sounding an alert if a collision is imminent.

The system can be fitted to any type of plant, for industries such as construction, rail, mining, demolition and waste, amongst others.

Manufactured in the UK, the device which can also be retrofitted to any plant or machinery and has achieved AI accuracy at 99.6% via independent test bodies in the UK and Germany, achieving the gold standard of accuracy levels.

The King’s Award for Enterprise was renamed last year to reflect His Majesty, The King’s desire to continue the legacy of HM Queen Elizabeth II, by recognising outstanding UK businesses. The Award programme, now in its 58th year, allows successful businesses to use the esteemed King’s Awards Emblem for the next five years.

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