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Steepest Fall In Retail Sentiment In 17 Years


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Sentiment amongst retailers fell at the sharpest rate in 17 years, with a growing share of firms expecting their business situation to deteriorate over the coming quarter – according to the CBI’s latest quarterly Distributive Trades Survey.


Retail sales volumes fell at a fast pace in the year to November, extending a period of weakness that goes back to mid-2023. Retailers expect demand to remain subdued heading into December, with sales set to fall again, albeit at a somewhat slower pace.


With demand still weak and uncertainty mounting ahead of the Budget, retailers plan to pull back on both investment and hiring. Investment intentions remain historically weak and have now been negative for three-and-a-half years. In the near-term, firms also expect to trim headcount at a slightly faster pace next month.


Key findings included:


  • Retail sales volumes fell at a fast pace in the year to November (weighted balance of -32% from -27% in October) but are expected to decline at a somewhat slower rate next month (-24%).

  • By seasonal standards, November’s retail sales were judged to be “poor” (-25%), to a somewhat greater extent than in October (-15%). December’s sales are set to disappoint seasonal norms to a comparable degree (-18%).

  • Sentiment among retailers worsened in November to the greatest extent in 17 years, with firms expecting their business situation to deteriorate over the coming quarter (-35% from -10% in August).

  • Retailers expect to reduce capital expenditure over the next 12 months (compared to the previous 12 months) to the same degree as reported in August (-42%). Investment intentions remained poor by historical standards (long-run average of -3%).

  • Retail employment declined again in the year to November (-19% from -14% in August). Headcount is expected to fall at a marginally quicker pace next month (-23%)

  • Retail selling price inflation fell closer to its long-run average in the year to November (+46%), slowing from a much faster rate in August (+65%), and bucking the trend of accelerating price inflation seen this year so far. Retailers anticipate selling price growth to ease again next month (+40%).

  • Total distribution sales volumes (including retail, wholesale, and motor trades) fell significantly in the year to November at a slightly quicker rate to October (-35% from -30% in October). Sales are set to decline at the same pace next month (-35%).


Alpesh Paleja, Deputy Chief Economist, CBI, said:

“Retailers continue to grapple with a long spell of weak demand, as households remain cautious around day-to-day spending. With all eyes on the forthcoming Budget, uncertainty in the run-up has meant that businesses are holding back on plans for investment and hiring."

“The Chancellor must avoid pulling the business tax lever once again, at risk of further curtailing firms’ efforts to build a more resilient, dynamic economy. Businesses want bold decisions to wrestle back the government’s fiscal headroom and get the economy on a solid path to prosperity. This includes finding a landing zone for the Employment Rights Bill that doesn’t harm job prospects or shortchange economic growth.”


In addition, data from the survey showed:


  • Online retail sales volumes grew in the year to November at a moderate pace and for the second month in a row (+13% from +4% in October). Retailers expect online sales to surge in December (+50%), marking the strongest expectation since May 2021.

  • Retailers’ orders placed upon suppliers declined in the year to November at a similarly firm pace to October (-25%, from -28%). Retailers expect to reduce orders at a faster rate next month (-34%).

  • Retailers reported that stock volumes relative to expected demand were broadly in line with the long-run average (+18% from +14%; long-run average of +17%) and are expected to broadly stay in this position in December (+16%).

  • Wholesaling’s annual sales volumes fell in November at the same pace as October (-31%). The rate of decline is expected to remain steady next month (-34%).

  • Motor trades sales volumes contracted at an accelerated rate in the year to November (-55% from -29% in October) and are expected to plummet next month (-66%).


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  • Writer: Paul Andrews - CEO Family Business United
    Paul Andrews - CEO Family Business United
  • Jul 28
  • 2 min read
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University of Dundee experts have made a crucial scientific breakthrough that could herald the development of vaccines against parasitic worms.


Experts at the University’s School of Life Sciences have developed a means of protecting hosts against parasitic worms, paving the way for further research that could prevent millions of infections of humans, livestock and pets every year.


The Dundee team found that parasitic worms produce proteins – including two known as HpARI and HpBARI – which suppress the host immune response. These proteins effectively block the immune system from reacting to the worm, allowing the infection to become chronic, resulting in long-term problems. Once infected, human hosts can experience diarrhoea, nausea, vomiting, and abdominal pains. Children are particularly vulnerable to the effects of worm infection, with an increased risk of growth stunting and malnutrition.


The Dundee team have discovered that they can turn these weapons against the parasite by vaccinating mice with HpARI and HpBARI. This raises an immune response that can be directed against these proteins, blocking their effects. This nullifies the parasite and allows the host’s immune system to effectively clear the infection. It is hoped that these findings, published in the journal Cell Reports, can be translated from mouse models to other animals and humans.


As well as infecting humans, parasitic worms commonly infect livestock and pets. The impact of infection can be significant on its host, with parasitic worm infection costing the European livestock sector €1.8 billion every year. Despite the significant health and economic impact of infection, there is currently no vaccination for humans against parasitic worms, with limited progress in protecting animals.


Scientists have long-known that to protect themselves, parasitic worms suppress the immune system of their hosts, however the molecular basis of this is only now becoming clear. As well as being useful as vaccines, parasite proteins such as HpARI and HpBARI have received interest as potential new treatments for human diseases where the immune system is hyperactive, for instance in allergies and asthma.


Dr Henry McSorley, lead author in the division of Cell Signalling and Immunology at Dundee’s School of Life Sciences, said, “Parasitic worms bring illness and misery to millions of people, often in some of the world’s poorest countries."


“Our work has revealed that HpARI or HpBARI proteins are effective in mitigating the effects of infection in hosts. Further research will be required to identify similar proteins from parasites of humans and livestock. These results are incredibly positive and could form the basis of a future vaccination that could protect humans against worm infection."


“There is still plenty of work to do, but in our battle against parasitic worms, the worm is beginning to turn.”

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